Commercial Awareness Blog 7th February by Ben Triggs

1. Revised Bank of England growth forecast

Last week it was announced the Bank of England has revised its economic forecast for 2017 and now expect the economy to grow 2% - up from the previous prediction of 1.4%. The central bank has also forecasted lower unemployment and a slightly less sharp increase in inflation for the year ahead, as they react to further signs the public and business is dealing well with the impact of the Brexit vote. Despite this revised forecast, leaders of big firms believe Brexit is ‘already damaging business’. In a survey of senior executives from over 100 of the largest 500 companies in the UK, 58% felt the referendum was having a negative impact on their business.

In a rate setting meeting at the Bank of England, it was decided interest rates will be held at 0.25% and a programme of quantitative easing would continue. Quantitative easing is a process of creating money electronically, for the purpose of buying financial assets and inject capital into the economy. The Bank of England has committed to giving a further £20.7 billion to lenders, who have had profits cut by continued low interest rates. Regardless of the positive signs for the UK economy, it is unlikely the UK will see interest rate rises in the near future.

Questions to ask yourself… How will the markets react when the Government triggers Article 50? What are the potential problems of Quantitative Easing?

2. Tesco’s planned Booker takeover

Tesco stunned the grocery sector in January by announcing a plan to acquire wholesaler Booker in a £3.7 billion deal. The takeover has run into problems lately as the supermarket giant is struggling to convince the Competition and Markets Authority the deal is in the best interest of the customer. Booker is a cash-and-carry wholesaler supplying independent retailers and also owns the Londis, Budgens and Premier brands – shops which are independently owned but run as franchises. The deal would add 5,400 shops to Tesco’s network of small stores, but this could lead to Tesco having too much control of the grocery market in some areas. 

Analysts suggest Tesco may be forced to sell over 600 stores nationwide, which are situated less than 500 metres from a Booker owned store. However, Tesco’s suggest Booker’s franchise network operates independently, playing down the potential problem surrounding competition. Lawyers from Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer and Clifford Chance have been enlisted to provide expertise on the takeover.

Tesco owns 28.3% of the total grocery market in the UK and the Booker takeover could add a further 2% to this share. According to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, this deal could trigger a merger between Sainsbury and Morrison.

Questions to ask yourself… Will this takeover have a negative impact for consumers? Could the takeover cause problems for small shop owners?

3. Apple and Facebook post strong results

Facebook has announced another very strong quarter of revenue and profit, as they again beat Wall Street expectations in Q4 of 2016. The social media firm earnt $8.81 billion in revenue – a 51% YoY growth - and profits reached $3.57 billion. Facebook’s ‘stickiness’ and continuing growing is defying expectation, with 1.86 billion active users on the social network last quarter (a 3.9% increase compared to the previous quarter).

It was also an excellent quarter for Apple, as huge iPhone 7 sales over Christmas marked its strongest ever quarter. Their net sales in Q4 were up 3% compared to the previous year, which was helped by record revenues in their Mac and Apple Watch division as well. In 2016, Apple had experienced three quarters of declining revenue, so these figures were a welcome improvement for the tech giants.

Despite strong iPhone sales, Apple last week was overtaken as the world’s most valuable brand by Google, after five years at the top spot. Analysts calculate the brand-worth in the top company each year as part of the Global 5000 rankings. In the report, Lego took over Disney as the world’s most powerful brand. The biggest losers in the ranking were fast food chains, as they struggle to break their association with unhealthy eating.

Questions to ask yourself… Has Apple just experienced a Christmas boost or is this growth set to stay? 

4. Trump to roll back regulation

Last week Donald Trump started the process of scaling back financial regulation by ordering a review into the 2010 Dodd-Frank act. One of Trump’s key election pledges was to roll back what he believes is excessive government intervention in finance.

What is the Dodd-Frank act?

Named after the Congressmen who campaigned for the act, it was created to rein in risky practices by banks and other financial companies, while ensuring the customer was given a fair deal. Its primary aim is to prevent another financial crisis like in 2008-09. The law reduced banks dependence on debt and made them create blueprints for handling future crises. It also led to the creation of the Financial Stability Council and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau – the latter promotes higher levels of consumer protection.

Is deregulation a good thing?

Trump’s administration suggest the legislation has failed to achieve its goals and has hurt community banks, who have struggled to comply with a number of the new laws. They believe banks will now have better ability to set prices more efficiently, therefore benefitting the customer. Wall Street reacted positively to news of the review, with increases to the share price of leading bank – Goldman Sachs rose by 4%. However, many commentators are apprehensive about deregulation, as it increases the ‘too big to fail’ thinking returning, which prevented the finance sector forecasting the 2008 crisis.

Questions to ask yourself…  Could deregulation be a positive thing for customers? Which sectors could be disadvantaged from less financial regulation?

5. Vegetable rations in supermarkets

Supermarkets have set limits on sales of iceberg lettuce and broccoli, after a harvest drought caused by poor weather in southern Spain. Tesco has stopped customers buying more than three iceberg lettuces, while you can’t buy more than three broccolis from Morrison. The aim is to restrict larger buyers, such as restaurants and caterers, so regular customers don’t lose out. Approximately 80% of the UK’s vegetables comes from southern Spain and the bad weather across mainland Europe has also affected contingency supplies from Greece and Italy.

Leading supermarkets are trying to boost supply by importing vegetables from America. However, this will cost significantly more and is likely to lead to increased prices for the customer. It’s reported that Tesco icebergs now cost 79p, up from 50p.

Question to ask yourself… Is the UK too reliant on foreign imports? 

6. And finally... £1 million prize for engineers who made the selfie possible

The four engineers who created the technology which made the selfie possible have been awarded with the £1 million Queen Elizabeth Prize – the world’s top award for engineering innovation. Working in USA and Japan over many decades, they developed the imaging sensor technology used in all digital cameras and smartphones today. Their work made most film based photography redundant and made Skyping, instant digital photography and streaming digital films possible.

Question to ask yourself… How much impact has this invention had to the modern world? 

16th January Commercial Awareness Update by Ben Triggs

1. Pound falls further ahead of May announcement

The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since October amid reports PM Theresa May will outline plans for a ‘hard Brexit’ this week. The pound is currently trading at $1.20, which makes it 20% down since Britain voted to leave the EU back in June. May is expected to signal plans for Britain to leave the single market and regain control of their borders. The announcement is due on Tuesday and is likely to give the greatest insight into the government’s plan for Brexit. The full negotiating strategy is unlikely to be outlined, but the tone and language used will give a strong indication of the current thinking.

The PM has already said Article 50 would be triggered by the end of March, allowing Britain to start negotiating the post-Brexit deal. There has been some good news as the EU chief negotiator stated it was important for the remaining 27 EU countries to have easy access to the City and London’s financial institutions. This is the first time Michel Barnier has softened from his hardline approach, suggesting a ‘special’ relationship could be forged.

In America, President-elect Donald Trump has backed Britain’s decision to leave the EU and believes they are ‘doing great’. During his first UK interview - with former cabinet minister Michael Gove for the Times - Mr Trump has promised the USA and UK will do a quick trade deal. Barack Obama previously suggested Britain would be at the “back of the queue” when it came to a trade deal with the US, but this doesn’t appear to be the case with the new President, who starts on Friday. However, a deal cannot be done until Britain formally leaves the EU in 2019.

Questions to ask yourself… Should Theresa May outline her full strategy for Brexit to the public? Is too much of Britain’s economic power centred on London?

2. Eight billionaires 'as rich as half world's poor'

An Oxfam report has revealed the world's eight wealthiest individuals have a combined wealth equal to that of the poorest 3.6 billion people. The research into inequality found the gap between rich and poor was “far greater than feared”. However, Oxfam’s interpretation of the figures has been questioned, as well as their focus on the super-wealthy. Some suggest Oxfam should more focused on encouraging economic growth and eradicating poverty. The former is more likely to be achieved if they are “making sure the economic cake is getting bigger”, UK economist Gerard Lyons claims.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has proposed a wage cap for the highest earners in the UK, including ‘fat cat’ CEOs and footballers. Corbyn has yet to outline his plan for the cap, but suggests it would be more than the £138,000 he currently earns. Findings from a recent research survey suggest a majority of the public would support this policy, with only 30% disagreeing with it in principle. However, experts suggest it would have disastrous consequences for the UK economy, without guaranteeing reduced levels of inequality. If wages were capped, the top talent is likely to move abroad to seek bigger wage packets – this would force big corporations to do the same to access the best talent for their business - therefore harming the UK economy.

Questions to ask yourself… Is wealth creation the best way to improve poverty levels around the world? Is Jeremy Corbyn’s suggested wage cap a workable policy?

3. Tesco and Morrison’s Christmas boost

British supermarkets Tesco and Morrisons enjoyed strong performances over the Christmas period, as the ‘Big Four’ continue to fight off competition from discounters Aldi and Lidl. Morrisons had their best figures for seven years in the 12-weeks to Christmas, with like-for-like sales increasing 2.9% compared to the previous year. It’s been a good period for supermarkets overall as sales increased by 1% in December. The big winners were Tesco, as they continue to show an increase in sales after recording a loss in 2015. 

Discount supermarket Aldi reported record figures after a 15% increase in December sales. With inflation set to rise and continuing economic instability, more people could turn to the cheaper alternatives - Aldi and Lidl. Many predict the ‘big four’ could become the ‘big six’ by the end of the decade. Aldi aims to double the amount of stores it owns in the UK over the coming years, which is likely to further disrupt the dominance of the current ‘big four’. Asda has been effected most by the rise of the two discounters and struggled this Christmas, recording a 2.4% decline in like-for-like sales.

Questions to ask yourself… Will Aldi and Lidl continue growing their market share? How can Asda turn their fortunes around?

4. The Stoke Central by-election

Labour MP Tristam Hunt is quitting as an MP to take over as the head of the Victoria & Albert museum in London. Hunt will vacate his Stoke Central parliamentary seat and set up a by-election. The constituency is traditionally a Labour stronghold, but UKIP are ready to launch a major challenge. Stoke had one of the biggest leave votes in the UK during last years’ EU referendum and it’s thought new UKIP leader Paul Nuttall could stand for the seat they have a genuine chance of winning. In 2015, the Stoke Central constituency was notable for its low turnout - just 49.5% - which gives plenty of scope for Labour’s competitors to engage the disengaged voters.

Hunt refused to serve in Jeremy Corbyn’s shadow cabinet after the former was elected as Labour party leader in September 2015. He follows Jaime Reed in resigning from the party, and could open the door for more Labour MPs to follow. Corbyn is faced with a tricky by-election and a poor current showing in the polls. Anything other than a convincing victory for Labour in Stoke Central could spell trouble for Corbyn's leadership.

Questions to ask yourself… Should more be done to ensure MPs stay in office for their full term? Is the Labour Party in irreversible decline?

5. And finally…

This morning the iconic billboard lights at Piccadilly Circus were turned off for renovation work to begin. The lights have been on continuously since World War Two - only going off due to power cuts and special events. The six screens will be replaced with a one-screen display, which boasts one of the highest resolution LED displays for its size in the world. The work is scheduled to be completed in the autumn, and the new screen will show advertising as well as weather and news updates. About 100 million people pass through Piccadilly square every year, making it one of the most valuable advertising opportunities in central London.

Question to ask yourself… Is physical display advertising still relevant in the digital age?  

Commercial Awareness Update 19th December by Ben Triggs

1. Christmas strikes

Workers across a range of sectors will strike over the Christmas period causing disruptions to transport and the postal service just before the holidays. Today 3,000 employees at Crown post offices will walkout over concerns over pension changes, job security and cuts. The Post Office continues to make wholesale changes to modernise its service and become more efficient. They have reduced losses from £120 four years ago to £26 million last year, and aim to break even next year. 

Meanwhile, rail strikes continue on Southern as conductors walk out for two days this week. Earlier this year Southern announced it would be down-grading the role of conductor on its services, as new trains with driver operated doors are set to be introduced. The RMT Trade Union claim the strikes are necessary to protect customer safety, as well as the jobs of their members. For those planning to travel around Christmas, there’s more bad news as British Airways cabin crew members belonging to union Unite, will strike on Christmas and Boxing day. However, both sides hope the row over pay can be solved and the strikes called off – talks are ongoing. 

These strikes will be problematic for many in the UK, but compared to times of mass-industrial action these are relatively small-scale. Before Thatcherism, the Trade Unions had much more power and it wasn’t uncommon for whole industries to strike – many of which were state owned. In 2015, fewer days were lost to strike action than any other year since records begun in 1965. The Winter of Discontent and other strike action led to 29 million working days lost to industrial action in 1979, compared to just 170,000 last year.

Questions to ask yourself… Do the unions still have too much power to strike? Could the strike action mean the public turn against the unions? Does this strike action suggest an attitude of gloom within Britain?

2. Boost for the banking sector

Last week the FTSE 100 rose above 7,000 points, as shares in leading banks made significant gains. Royal Bank of Scotland closed 4.7% up and Barclays’ share price rose by 2.4%, helped by the announcement of increasing interest rates in the US. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced it would hike its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to the range of 0.5% to 0.75% - with three more increases planned for 2017. 

This is unlikely to affect customers directly, but the higher interest rates will allow banks to charge more for lending to other banks. In general, higher interest rates are good for banking as it gives them the opportunity to make more profit. It’s only the second time in a decade interest rates have gone up in America.

In other banking news, Barclays have sold their French retail banking division to private equity firm AnaCap. Barclays are selling off their assets in Europe as they aim to streamline operations. Earlier this year, the bank sold its African operation and have scaled down in Italy, Spain and the Middle East.

Questions to ask yourself…  What is the long term impact of increases in interest rates? Is this a good thing for the global economy?

3. Apple and Ireland to challenge European tax ruling

Apple and the Irish Government are set to challenge the European Commission’s ruling that the US tech giant has to pay Ireland €13 billion in back taxes. The Commission ruled the tax deal Apple did with Ireland was illegal because it allowed Apple to pay much less than other companies in the country. Apple’s European headquarters is in Ireland, where corporation tax is set at 12.5%. 

Apple are set to challenge the ruling claiming the European Commission has overlooked the advice from Irish tax experts. The Irish Government will also challenge the ruling, claiming EU regulators have interfered with national sovereignty and have misinterpreted Irish tax law. It may appear odd for Ireland to challenge something which will increase their tax receipts, but the Government maintaining a pro-business stance and maintaining good relations with Apple could be more beneficial in the long run.

Questions to ask yourself… Should countries be giving favourable tax deals to large corporations?  What are the disadvantages of Apple having their European headquarters in Ireland?

4. JustEat’s spending spree

Food delivery app JustEat has announced plans to acquire rivals Hungry House and Canadian company SkipTheDishes. They claim to have reached a deal with Hungry House’s German owners Delivery Hero to acquire their competitor for £200 million – which could rise by £40 million dependent on performance.  

JustEat has acquired a number of its competitors in 2016 as they grow their global market share. In August they bought the assets of British start up takeaway.com and have also acquired takeaway delivery services in Spain, Italy, Brazil and Mexico. JustEat reported a 59% increase in revenues to £171.6 million in the first six months of 2016.

Commercial Awareness Update 12th December by Ben Triggs

1. Murdoch bids for Sky

Ruport Murdoch owned 21st Century Fox has tabled a bid to takeover Sky. The company already owns 39.1% of the telecommunications company, with Murdoch offering £11.25 billion for the remaining stake – valuing Sky at £18.5 billion. Sky’s share price has struggled this year and many believe the company will lose out as a result of Brexit. However, with a 15% decline in the Sterling compared to the Dollar, British companies have become an attractive proposition for foreign investment. 

Fox chief executive James Murdoch was made Chairman of Sky earlier this year, leading to further speculation over a takeover. However, this has concerned many investors who want to ensure Sky’s board push to secure a higher bid from the US media giant. MPs have also raised concerned about a lack of competition in the media industry if this bid was to go ahead. The Government has a responsibility to stop monopolies in a particular industry being detrimental to the customer.

Fox has until 6th January to outline their intentions regarding the proposed takeover. This deal looks very likely to happen and Sky’s share price rose 30% last week on the announcement of the takeover bid.

Questions to ask yourself… Could it be problematic for Murdoch to own more of the British media industry? Should the government be encouraging foreign takeovers of British companies?

2. Strong week for markets

It was an excellent week for the FTSE 100 as mining and oil were the big winners in the markets. Oil prices increased by nearly 5% as the non-OPEC (Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) oil producing nations agreed a deal to limit production, leading to Royal Dutch Shell’s share price rising by 3% and BP’s 2%. It was also a good week for the British mining industry as unions are on the verge of a deal with Tata Steal to keep their Port Talbot plant open and save thousands of jobs.

It wasn’t all good news in the markets - shares in Capita fell by 14% as the outsourcing firm issued a profit warning and said they would be selling off assets. Earlier this year the City was expected the firms profits to be £614 million for the year, but the latest announcement suggests it will only be at £515 million. It was also a bad week for Sports Direct who’s share price lost 7.5% after it was revealed their half year profits were down 57%. 

Questions to ask yourself… Why does an increase in oil prices have such a big impact on the markets? What can Sports Direct do to turn things around after a poor year?

3. Decline in ‘everyday’ biscuits

Sales in the ‘everyday’ biscuit have sharply declined in the UK, as consumers favour healthier snacks and more indulgent treats. The UK biscuit market is worth £2.4 billion, but sales in the everyday biscuit category fell by 7.1% compared to the previous year. Rich Tea, Custard Creams and Digestives were some of the hardest hit, as the premium category of biscuits made significant gains. 

People in the UK appear to be eating less biscuits, but when they do treating themselves to higher quality, more expensive treats. Healthier oat biscuits are also seeing a grow in sales, suggesting Britain is becoming more health conscious. 

Question to ask yourself… Does our biscuit eating habits reflect a more health conscious Britain?

4. The European Central Bank (ECB) takes it foot off the accelerator – just a bit

The ECB has been directly buying government bonds of European countries in an effort to reduce the interest rates that companies in those countries need to pay in order to borrow money. This works because as the ECB buys bonds, the yield (or interest rate) that those bonds offer go down (click here for an explanation). The lower interest rates feed through to loans that banks make to individuals and companies (in theory, at least). With lower borrowing costs, people and businesses are more likely to borrow, and thus spend, money – therefore boosting economic activity. The fact that the ECB is decrease support for the economy – even very moderately – is a sign that the European economy is starting to pick up a bit of steam.

5. And finally… 

Amazon launched a concept grocery store in Seattle with a revolutionary premise: no queues! Shoppers scan their smartphone on their way in, take their goods and simply walk out of the store. Sensory imaging and artificial intelligence is used to determine what the person bought – and charges their Amazon account accordingly. The program, called Amazon Go, has the potential to revolutionise retail – but also highlights how improving technology can threaten jobs (e.g. no more cashiers).

Commercial Awareness Update 5th December by Ben Triggs

1. Liberal Democrats surprise victory

Last week, Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Olney won a surprise victory in the Richmond by-election, beating ex-Tory MP Zac Goldsmith by almost 2,000 votes. Goldsmith resigned from the Conservative Party after it was announced Heathrow was on course for a third runway and forced a by-election on the issue. However, the Liberal Democrats mobilised their supporters and turned the vote into a debate on the triggering of Article 50. During the EU Referendum, Richmond heavily supported the Remain camp and the Liberal Democrats' pro-EU stance during the by-election campaign was popular among constituents.

70% of voters in Richmond wanted to remain in the EU, but Zac Goldsmith was a vocal supporter of the Leave campaign. This is his second election defeat in 2016 after losing to Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. It was also a bad day for the Labour Party whose candidate only polled 1,515 votes - down from 7,296 in 2015. 

Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron claimed this was a rejection of Theresa May’s plan for a 'hard Brexit'. Sally Olney will take her place in the House of Commons as the Liberal Democrats' ninth MP, herself having joined politics and the party just 18 months ago.

Questions to ask yourself… Should this by-election be seen as the people rejecting a 'hard-Brexit'? What does this result say about the Labour Party’s current popularity?

2. Talk of a 'soft Brexit'

The value of the pound rose last week, as Brexit Minister David Davis admitted the Government may be willing to pay to maintain access to the EU single market after Brexit. He is the first member of May’s cabinet to openly discuss this, but Boris Johnson said this would only be a possibility at the right price. The pound reached its highest level in six weeks against both the dollar and euro, as the markets believed this announcement suggests the Government is more likely to pursue a 'soft Brexit'.

If Britain was able to do an economic deal with the EU after Brexit, it could bring more unity among the British public. There are hardline Brexiters who will believe this is a betrayal of the referendum result, but a deal to stay in the economic union could work for the majority of the public. The argument surrounding immigration and free movement of people dominated Vote Leave’s campaign and polls suggest around 70% of the population believe we should have more control of our borders. However, Vote Remain championed the economic arguments of staying in the EU and the single market. Marrying these two different stances was always going to be a difficult, but if the UK could have more control over their borders but also negotiate a deal to maintain access to the single market, it may keep both sides happy.

Questions to ask yourself… Should Britain pursue a deal to pay to stay in the single market? Should the EU be willing to do a deal with Britain on those grounds?

3. Euro falls after Renzi resignation 

The Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi resigned on Sunday evening after facing defeat in a constitutional referendum. The referendum proposed a broad range of changes including cuts to public spending, more streamline political processes and electoral reform – which would make it more difficult for extremist parties to gain power. It was believed a ‘Yes’ vote would provide political stability and help strengthen Italy's struggling banking system. However, it wasn't to be and the resounding ‘No’ vote casts huge uncertainty over Italian and EU politics, as well as having the potential to cause another banking crisis in Italy. 

Despite being about constitutional reform, much of the rhetoric before the vote centred on Italy’s EU membership and Eurozone. Renzi is a keen supporter of the EU, but many of the opposition parties are very sceptical. The populist Five Star Movement is gaining mass support and have promised a vote on EU membership if the party win the next election, currently scheduled for 2018. The ‘No’ vote is another major blow for the EU political elite and it has rocked the markets. The Euro is down against the pound and dollar, as speculators fear a crisis in Italy as well as an increased chance of EU disintegration. 

Questions to ask yourself… Is this another sign that the EU is destined to fail? What should the EU do to reform?

4. The cost of not sleeping well

A new study has revealed sleep deprivation costs the economy £40 billion each year due to lack of productivity. Research firm Rand Europe took data from 62,000 people and claimed the UK loses 200,000 working days a year due to lack of sleep, costing 1.86% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There are a range of health problems associated with lack of health, with those sleeping less than six hours a night 13% more likely to die young compared to those who get seven to nine hours. 

Question to ask yourself… Should employers do more to promote the importance of sleep? In demanding jobs, is a lack of sleep inevitable?

5. A big deal for oil 

The main news of the week was that OPEC members (a group of mainly Arab oil producing countries) agreed to cut their oil production. Less supply generally means a higher price - and that was borne out: the oil price jumped almost 15% last week. It’s now back near its highest level in more than a year. That’s good news for oil companies and oil-producing regions (including parts of America), but will also likely push overall prices higher for the rest of us (e.g. for petrol). Many analysts, however, remain sceptical that OPEC members will adhere to the deal - which means we’ll have to wait until next year to see if it’s truly effective.

6. Increasing competition

Ofcom, a regulatory arm of the British government, said that it would begin the process to formally separate BT, the telecom and internet services company, from Openreach, which is the BT subsidiary that owns and operates the UK’s main broadband network. It’s an example of how the Government will occasionally step in when they feel that a market is not competitive enough due to the dominance of one (or a small number) of companies. The idea is that a more competitive market would ensure prices remain fair for people and businesses that need internet services, a.k.a. everyone! 

Commercial Awareness Update 21st November by Ben Triggs

Dollar reaches 14-year high

The US dollar jumped to a 14-year high as markets anticipate a huge spending boom by President-elect Donald Trump. Optimism in America led to the Dollar index - which measures the Dollar against a number of other currencies - reaching its highest level since mid-2002. After the initial shock of the Trump victory, the dollar dipped but has risen ever since as the markets speculate on his forthcoming presidency. The President-elect has promised public spending on infrastructure and construction - which could cost as much as $1 trillion - and experts believe this will provide a short-term boost to the economy. This public spending can also have a positive long-term impact for the US economy, but this will rely on the projects being a productive use of taxpayers money with little long-term wastage.  

A rise in interest rates is also expected to boost the value of the dollar. In the coming months, inflation is likely to rise - especially as Trump has pledged to restrict free trade - and with the current positive economic outlook, will encourage the Federal Reserve to push up interest rates. The rates are currently at 0.5% but most believe they will be increased next month.

Trump’s pro-business and spending stance did have an impact on the bond market - it’s lost $1 trillion worldwide since the US presidential election. Low-yield ‘safe’ bonds are being sold off in what many have coined the "Trump Dump", as investors pursue more lucrative investment strategies. With inflation rising, bond prices are likely to increase - the more you pay for a bond, the lower the yield (or potential earnings). Plus, Trump’s pro-business stance has encouraged investors to take money from bonds and put them in stocks - believing they will see strong returns.

Questions to ask yourself… Is a strong dollar good for the global economy? Is the market's current positivity about the Trump presidency an example of short-termism?

Click here for Finimize's more in-depth analysis.

Facebook to expand UK workforce by 50%

Last week Facebook announced it would boost its UK workforce by 50% when it opens a new London headquarters in 2017. There are plans to hire another 500 members of staff, including high-skilled engineers, marketers and salespeople. Facebook's engineers in the current London office have helped with the development of their new product, Workplace - a business platform to help internal communication flow between staff. 

After the EU Referendum there were many companies considering moving operations out of London but it remains the tech stronghold of Europe. Google has also committed to building a new headquarters in the capital which will provide 3,000 more jobs when it opens in 2020. London Mayor Sadiq Khan suggested this investment is a “sign that London is open to talent, innovation and entrepreneurship”.  

Questions to ask yourself… What makes London a tech hub? How does Britain improve technical skills among its workforce? 

Build-up to the Autumn Statement

Chancellor Philip Hammond will give his first Autumn Statement this Wednesday, as the Government will outline its plan for the economy. The Prime Minister Theresa May is keen to help out lower income households, but most of the attention will be on how Hammond aims to boost a potentially stuttering economy after Brexit. With ex-Chancellor George Osborne’s target of cutting the deficit being scrapped, this statement could spell an end to austerity. The cost of Brexit has also been a key topic this week, with forecasts suggesting it could leave a £100 billion blackhole in the budget.

What we think could be announced:

• Hammond has suggested £1.3 billion will be spent on improving roads across the UK
• The Chancellor is expected to back Osborne’s plans to cut corporation tax from 20% to 17% by 2020
• The personal allowance on income tax may be raised - it could be increased to £11,500 from today (previously scheduled for the 2017/18 tax year)
• To encourage savings, the amount people can put in ISAs before being taxed could be raised
• The idea of reducing VAT to 17.5% may be suggested, but this is unlikely to happen this tax year
• Increased tax on employees benefits - making gym memberships, private healthcare and similar more expensive for workers

Questions to ask yourself… What is the priority for the UK economy in the next six months? Should the Government continue spending and run at a deficit?

What happened in Britain?

The UK economy got some good news last week as data showed that prices for everyday consumer goods and services (like rent, groceries, clothing, etc.) weren’t increasing as much as feared. Also, retail sales (e.g. stuff sold in stores) grew by 7% versus a year ago - the strongest increase in 14 years. Economists continue to warn that prices will rise next year (as the weak pound makes imported goods more expensive), which will mean people won’t be able to buy as much stuff. But the pain has been delayed for longer than most economists were expecting.

And finally… 

Snap Inc., the owner of popular social media app Snapchat, officially began the process to become a publicly traded company (i.e. to have its shares traded on a stock exchange via an IPO). At a rumoured valuation of $25-35 billion, it would be the biggest US tech IPO since Facebook in 2012. The IPO is expected to take place in the first half of next year.

Commercial Awareness update 7th November

1. Parliament to vote on triggering Article 50

Last week the High Court ruled that the Government couldn’t trigger Article 50 and start the process of formally leaving the EU without consulting Parliament. The campaign was led by London-based investment manager Gina Miller, who claims she doesn’t want to challenge Brexit but wants the legal process to be carried out correctly. As the result of EU Referendum is only advisory and not binding, the successful argument put to the High Court stated that leaving the EU would effectively overturn at least one act of Parliament, which is unconstitutional. The ruling reiterated the sovereignty of Parliament and its need to be consulted on these matters.

The Government has confirmed it will challenge the ruling in the Supreme Court. Even though unlikely, there’s a chance it will end up going to the European Court of Justice, currently the highest court in Britain.

Will it impact on Brexit?

Many have suggested this is the wealthy elite challenging the outcome of the Referendum but it would be extremely difficult for Parliament to outright reject Brexit. They are there to enact the people’s will so going against the Referendum result would be considered highly undemocratic. It’s likely to mean Britain gets a softer Brexit than the Government is currently gunning for. A majority of MPs are pro-EU, therefore the strategy for Brexit is likely to be diluted because the Government will have to submit a proposal that MPs wouldn't revolt against.  

A potential outcome of the ruling is an early general election taking place sometime next year. Theresa May will set out the Government’s plan for Brexit and if she has trouble passing it through Parliament, she could call an election to gain a fresh mandate from the people for her strategy. The Conservatives have opened up a 14 point lead over the Labour Party in the polls, so it could be a good time to have an election.  

What happened to the markets?

On the announcement of the High Court ruling, the pound rose against the dollar and confidence in the markets increased, as most speculators believe the decision decreases the chances of a hard Brexit - therefore Britain would maintain reasonable access to the single market. The pound rose to a four-week high against the dollar and even if Theresa May still pursues a hard Brexit, this ruling will make her fully clarify her position before negotiations start, which businesses are keen for. 

Questions to ask yourself... Should wealthy individuals get involved in legal processes? Should referendum results be legally binding?

2. America set to vote for a new President

On Tuesday, the American people will go to the polls to decide on whether Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump will be their 45th President. After months of debates, rallies and speculation, 120 million Americans are expected to vote in this landmark election. Clinton has a lead in the polls but Trump is making headway in some key swing states. 

Not sure what’s going on? Here’s our guide to the American election.

The result is expected to be announced very early Wednesday morning, so keep an eye on global stock exchanges and currency markets this week because there’s likely to be volatility whatever the result. 

Questions to ask yourself... What would happen to markets if Trump wins? Is it fair that a few swing states will effectively decide the result of the election?

3. What happened to the British economy?

The Bank of England held one of its regular meetings last week. The main takeaways were that it said the economic fallout from the Brexit vote hasn’t been as bad as it anticipated. However, it also predicted that inflation (a.k.a. the rate at which the price of things increase) would likely rise significantly next year. This would hit people’s wallets as things get more expensive – meaning they’ll buy less stuff (which, of course, is bad for retailers that sell things to consumers). In short, the UK economy is doing better than thought, but it’s far from out of the woods yet.

There was some slightly concerning news for the UK housing market as an important survey suggested that, on average, prices didn’t rise between September and October (although prices are still about 4% higher than they were a year ago). The fear is that the uncertainty created by the Brexit vote, and the hit to people’s wallet’s discussed above, will weigh on house prices in the coming year.

Questions to ask yourself... What are the biggest long-term risks of Brexit for the British economy? Is a decrease in housing prices universally bad for the British economy?

4. The oil price is having a rough time

The oil price fell back to levels last seen about six weeks ago. The problem is that a supposedly big deal between a cooperative of oil-producing countries (a.k.a. OPEC) to limit production looks like it’s in jeopardy (and if they were to limit supply, it would be good for the oil price). As the oil producers struggle to agree on the details the oil price is falling - which hurts the stock prices of energy companies and currencies of countries that produce lots of oil (among other things). 

5. And finally… 

Facebook’s stock sold off as it signaled it would stop increasing the number of ads in your newsfeed and shift its focus to video (though investors aren’t sure the shift will be successful). Its strategy further threatens traditional media companies, who are already competing with increasingly popular streaming services such as Netflix.

Your Commercial Awareness update 24th October 2016 by Ben Triggs

1. London banks contemplate relocation

The head of the British Banking Association (BBA) has claimed large banks could start leaving London for fear of Britain’s future relationship with the EU after Brexit. Anthony Browne said “their hands are quivering over the relocate button”, suggesting plans are already in place to move significant parts of these firm's operation to Europe within the next few months. Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and other European cities have been busy pitching their town to City bankers.

One of the key benefits of the EU’s single market for banks is 'passporting' - this allows banks to sell their services freely in all parts of the EU without establishing a local office. If Britain is to pursue a hard Brexit, there is no guarantee this privilege will be maintained and this could potentially cripple the UK’s banking industry. As a result, leading banks have started drawing up plans to move away from the British capital - it’s suggested Goldman Sachs could move 2,000 employees from London to a location within the EU.

Many suggest Browne’s comments were aimed at putting pressure on the Conservative Government to clarify their position on Brexit and the tactics for upcoming negotiations. London is a very popular city among bankers and a financial hub - it is a big decision to move away. 

Questions to ask yourself… Is it possible for Britain to maintain the same access to the single market outside the EU? Who loses out if top banks move to other parts of Europe?

2. "Pound still not cheap" - Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has claimed the pound is still overvalued, despite falling 15% since Britain voted to leave the EU. The investment bank claims sterling is still 10% overvalued and will drop further over the next few months. At the time of writing, the pound was worth $1.22 but many believe it will fall as low as $1.15 by the end of the year. However many argue the pound is actually very cheap

This broad range of opinion is largely due to standard valuation methods being unable to account for the impact of an event like the EU Referendum. Standard models, like GSDEER (Goldman Sachs Dynamic Equilibrium Exchange), estimate fair value for a currency, which are effectively long-term moving averages - predicting the effect of a trend once it has already started. However this cannot account for the impact of short-term shock caused by something like the leave vote. 

It was suggested last week that most brands are going to raise their prices by at least 5% due to the increase in import costs caused by a fall in the value of the pound. Microsoft has revealed they will raise prices by up to 22% due to the weak pound, which will have a big impact on business as well as the Government.

Questions to ask yourself… What needs to happen for the pound to start rising in value again? Which industries are benefiting from the lower value of the pound? 

3. Record high employment

The number of people employed in the UK reached almost 32 million in August, figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) revealed last week. The number of 16 to 65 year olds in employment or full-time education held at 74.5%, despite fears surrounding the job marker after the leave vote. There was also a rise in wages - from 2.1% in the previous month to 2.3%. This was welcome news for the British economy but there's reason for caution as income in real terms is likely to decrease in the coming months due to rises in inflation.

A study by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) found employers were increasingly worried about the future and planned to scale back future hiring. Figures from the last three months show a slight increase in people registering for unemployment and it’s predicted this will get worse as the impact of the leave vote takes full effect. If job creation is stunted due to fears about the future, it will have a long term effect on the economy and youth unemployment.   

Questions to ask yourself… What can the British Government do to encourage job creation? How will curbing free movement of people impact the job market?

4. Morgan Stanley’s record profits

Morgan Stanley has announced third quarter profits which beat expectations, boosted by a sharp increase in bond trading. Net income rose to $1.6 billion from $1 billion in the previous quarter, with income from bond trading almost doubling. The asset management firm has restructured its bond trading division, cutting costs and around 25% of their workforce, which also led to increased profits. Revenue rose 15% to $8.91 billion, which easily beat analysts prediction of $8.17 billion for the quarter.

The previous quarter was surprisingly strong for US banks across the sector. An increase in bond trading was sparked by Britain’s decision to leave the EU and anxiety about monetary policy around the world. On Wall Street, new capital rules had previously slashed trading profits and led to major banks cutting staff, but the most recent quarter saw activity bounce back. 

Questions to ask yourself… What would typically cause an increase in bond trading? Should investment banks be regulated more by the authorities?

5. MPs vote on Green's knighthood

Last week, MPs unanimously agreed on a motion to strip former BHS boss, Sir Philip Green of his knighthood. Politicians branded him the unacceptable face of British capitalism and an asset stripper after his role in the fall of BHS - creating a £571 million pension deficit and leaving 11,000 unemployed. Green is said to have paid himself and his family huge dividends while in charge of BHS, before selling it on the verge of collapse for £1.00. A parliamentary report claims his actions directly led to the department store's collapse, which could have been avoided. The billionaire has said he would attempt to deal with the pension deficit but there has been no concrete plan or payment put forward by Green to date.

The motion is non-binding and any final decision will be taken by the Honours Forfeiture Committee. However, after the motion in Parliament it's highly unlikely Green will keep his knighthood. 

Question to ask yourself… Should MPs have the power to remove knighthoods? How will stripping Green of his title impact his business ventures?

Your Commercial Awareness update 24th October 2016 by Ben Triggs

1. London banks contemplate relocation

The head of the British Banking Association (BBA) has claimed large banks could start leaving London for fear of Britain’s future relationship with the EU after Brexit. Anthony Browne said “their hands are quivering over the relocate button”, suggesting plans are already in place to move significant parts of these firm's operation to Europe within the next few months. Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin and other European cities have been busy pitching their town to City bankers.

One of the key benefits of the EU’s single market for banks is 'passporting' - this allows banks to sell their services freely in all parts of the EU without establishing a local office. If Britain is to pursue a hard Brexit, there is no guarantee this privilege will be maintained and this could potentially cripple the UK’s banking industry. As a result, leading banks have started drawing up plans to move away from the British capital - it’s suggested Goldman Sachs could move 2,000 employees from London to a location within the EU.

Many suggest Browne’s comments were aimed at putting pressure on the Conservative Government to clarify their position on Brexit and the tactics for upcoming negotiations. London is a very popular city among bankers and a financial hub - it is a big decision to move away. 

Questions to ask yourself… Is it possible for Britain to maintain the same access to the single market outside the EU? Who loses out if top banks move to other parts of Europe?

2. "Pound still not cheap" - Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs has claimed the pound is still overvalued, despite falling 15% since Britain voted to leave the EU. The investment bank claims sterling is still 10% overvalued and will drop further over the next few months. At the time of writing, the pound was worth $1.22 but many believe it will fall as low as $1.15 by the end of the year. However many argue the pound is actually very cheap

This broad range of opinion is largely due to standard valuation methods being unable to account for the impact of an event like the EU Referendum. Standard models, like GSDEER (Goldman Sachs Dynamic Equilibrium Exchange), estimate fair value for a currency, which are effectively long-term moving averages - predicting the effect of a trend once it has already started. However this cannot account for the impact of short-term shock caused by something like the leave vote. 

It was suggested last week that most brands are going to raise their prices by at least 5% due to the increase in import costs caused by a fall in the value of the pound. Microsoft has revealed they will raise prices by up to 22% due to the weak pound, which will have a big impact on business as well as the Government.

Questions to ask yourself… What needs to happen for the pound to start rising in value again? Which industries are benefiting from the lower value of the pound? 

3. Record high employment

The number of people employed in the UK reached almost 32 million in August, figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) revealed last week. The number of 16 to 65 year olds in employment or full-time education held at 74.5%, despite fears surrounding the job marker after the leave vote. There was also a rise in wages - from 2.1% in the previous month to 2.3%. This was welcome news for the British economy but there's reason for caution as income in real terms is likely to decrease in the coming months due to rises in inflation.

A study by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) found employers were increasingly worried about the future and planned to scale back future hiring. Figures from the last three months show a slight increase in people registering for unemployment and it’s predicted this will get worse as the impact of the leave vote takes full effect. If job creation is stunted due to fears about the future, it will have a long term effect on the economy and youth unemployment.   

Questions to ask yourself… What can the British Government do to encourage job creation? How will curbing free movement of people impact the job market?

4. Morgan Stanley’s record profits

Morgan Stanley has announced third quarter profits which beat expectations, boosted by a sharp increase in bond trading. Net income rose to $1.6 billion from $1 billion in the previous quarter, with income from bond trading almost doubling. The asset management firm has restructured its bond trading division, cutting costs and around 25% of their workforce, which also led to increased profits. Revenue rose 15% to $8.91 billion, which easily beat analysts prediction of $8.17 billion for the quarter.

The previous quarter was surprisingly strong for US banks across the sector. An increase in bond trading was sparked by Britain’s decision to leave the EU and anxiety about monetary policy around the world. On Wall Street, new capital rules had previously slashed trading profits and led to major banks cutting staff, but the most recent quarter saw activity bounce back. 

Questions to ask yourself… What would typically cause an increase in bond trading? Should investment banks be regulated more by the authorities?

5. MPs vote on Green's knighthood

Last week, MPs unanimously agreed on a motion to strip former BHS boss, Sir Philip Green of his knighthood. Politicians branded him the unacceptable face of British capitalism and an asset stripper after his role in the fall of BHS - creating a £571 million pension deficit and leaving 11,000 unemployed. Green is said to have paid himself and his family huge dividends while in charge of BHS, before selling it on the verge of collapse for £1.00. A parliamentary report claims his actions directly led to the department store's collapse, which could have been avoided. The billionaire has said he would attempt to deal with the pension deficit but there has been no concrete plan or payment put forward by Green to date.

The motion is non-binding and any final decision will be taken by the Honours Forfeiture Committee. However, after the motion in Parliament it's highly unlikely Green will keep his knighthood. 

Question to ask yourself… Should MPs have the power to remove knighthoods? How will stripping Green of his title impact his business ventures?

BT Commercial Awareness Tips

Katie Bradley and Julia Mansi, two trainees from BT's in-house legal team, visited UEA on Wednesday 11th November 2015. They came to discuss the value of commercial awareness to working in-house and to run a workshop enabling students to develop their commercial understanding.

BT has one of the largest in-house legal departments, with over 200 lawyers across the globe. Their training scheme is extremely generous, with a £31,500 starting salary, fully-funded LPC, BT Sport for just £1, support to help you with your studies, and much more. Only 3 applicants a year are given a place, and so it is fundamental that you prove you are more than just academically talented.

When applying for a training contract anywhere, not just at BT, it is fundamental that you demonstrate you are commercially aware. This is because you will be working for a company, and part of your role will be to support the business in its commercial goals, as well as providing legal and regulatory advice. It is therefore crucial that you have a clear vision of those goals and understand all the relevant factors that help or hinder the realisation of those objectives (e.g. political and economic climate, business structure, competitors etc). This vision and understanding is essentially commercial awareness.

Demonstrating your commercial awareness is fairly simple, and Katie and Julia gave us some top tips for your applications, interviews and assessment days:

• Research the company, its values and culture. 
• This can easily be done in a number of ways; looking at their website, attending open days, vacation schemes or internships, asking employees about their experiences. 
• Read the annual reports of the company. 
• This will help you understand more about the finance and structure of the business. 
• Reflect on previous work experience. 
• Be aware that you should never just list what you did, you should explain what you learned and how that development will allow you to be an asset to the company. 
• Reflect on other experiences. 
• You don't just learn skills from working, anything can be used to show that you can think critically. Popular examples include travelling, where you can show you have had to manage finances or organise the most efficient route, or being a committee member, where you can demonstrate that you have organised events based on the needs and wants of your members. 

For more information about the BT graduate scheme, visit: www.btgraduates.com.

- Ellie Dobbyne

The Critical Importance of a Commercial Perspective

Football and business – two great passions of mine, and surprisingly to some, two sides of the same coin. Neither can exist without the other, but why is that the case?
It seems that for students looking to enhance their commercial capabilities, we can look no further than to the beautiful game for inspiration. At every level of the chain of command, individuals demonstrate time and time again their tremendous knack of making lots of money for themselves, or for the organisations they represent.

CEO’s are the standard bearer for commercial awareness, simply because it is their job. For example, Ed Woodward, of Manchester United, who in 2014 agreed a world record $559m shirt sponsorship deal with Chevrolet, which originated from an innocuous meeting with the global marketing manager at a roadshow event at Kuala Lumpur. Managers are commercial too, typified by Alex Ferguson’s £40m NET profit on player transfers during his two decade tenure. But these feats are eclipsed by the guile and cunning displayed by footballers themselves.

I am particularly appreciative of the subterfuge displayed by Sergio Ramos of Real Madrid in the most recent transfer window. With a year left to run on his contract, he expressed a desire to join another team, which accordingly prompted them to make a bid, which was rejected by his current club, and resulted in him earning a bumper new contract – this was always his intention. One can also admire Papy Djilobodji, Bebé and Iago Aspas’ technique of compiling videos of their best bits, and sending them to scouts who naively think they have found the next Messi, when in reality they are no better than the Norwich and Norfolk Sunday League. I am aware these names are very obscure, but they are all millionaires in their own right because of their understanding of how the system works, and how they can gain from it.

I think the point I am getting at is, the people who accomplish their commercial objectives, have a clear understanding of how to leverage their own capabilities in particular industries. It is, in a sense, taking your skills and strengths, and making these as valuable as possible.

So when you are next applying for a job, or heading to an interview, have a clear focus on creating value – think about what makes you valuable, what are they looking for and how that will translate into added value for that company.

- Conor Bell